What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
New Hampshire is priced at 46¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary.
Price history
46¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If New Hampshire is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
New Hampshire
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
New Hampshire 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$14
Identifier
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-NH
Jun 26, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$14
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If New Hampshire is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-NH
Event family
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14
Outcomes
4
Highest price
New Hampshire 37¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.