What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
Leader sits at 88% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
South Carolina
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
New Hampshire
Spread
84pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
814 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
Analysis
This probability reflects market pricing on which state will hold the first Democratic presidential primary election. New Hampshire and South Carolina are currently tied at 37% each, while Nevada trails at 16%, indicating substantial uncertainty about the Democratic National Committee's calendar decisions. The outcome hinges primarily on formal DNC rulings and state legislative actions, as both New Hampshire and South Carolina have competing claims to early positioning based on traditional precedent and recent party initiatives. The Democratic Party's official calendar announcement and any subsequent state-level legislative changes will be the decisive factor in resolving this question. Historical precedent, state party negotiations, and potential legal challenges could shift probabilities significantly in either direction.
- ›New Hampshire and South Carolina are tied at identical 37% odds, suggesting markets view both states as equally plausible frontrunners despite competing historical and political claims
- ›Nevada's 16% probability indicates it is viewed as a meaningful but secondary contender, reflecting uncertainty about whether the DNC will maintain its stated preference for Nevada over New Hampshire
- ›The DNC's official primary calendar announcement and any subsequent state legislative actions (particularly in New Hampshire) will directly determine which state actually goes first
- ›New Hampshire's historical 'first-in-the-nation' status creates path-dependent expectations, but South Carolina's recent elevation by the DNC creates competing institutional claims
- ›The combined 74% probability assigned to New Hampshire and South Carolina versus 16% for Nevada suggests the market has largely excluded other states from contention
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (88% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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