What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
Leader sits at 37% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New Hampshire
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
South Carolina
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$14
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
866 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: South Carolina
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-SC
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: Nevada
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-NV
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: New Hampshire
KXFIRSTPRIMARYD-28-NH
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Iowa will be the first state to hold a Democratic primary election in the 2028 presidential cycle. The 41% estimate sits between two major prediction venues, with a modest 3-point gap suggesting some disagreement about the likelihood. The outcome hinges primarily on whether the Democratic National Committee maintains its traditional calendar—Iowa has historically opened the primary season for decades—or whether recent reform efforts gain traction to reorder states. The Democratic National Committee's final calendar decision, expected well before 2028, will be the critical catalyst that resolves most uncertainty around this question. Until that official determination, markets will reflect ongoing debate about whether party leadership prioritizes tradition versus attempts to increase representation from earlier-voting demographics.
- ›DNC has signaled openness to calendar changes for 2028, having already modified 2024 calendar with South Carolina as first official contest
- ›Iowa's historical front-loaded status has faced criticism from party reformers seeking earlier participation from more diverse states
- ›No formal DNC calendar decision has been announced for 2028, leaving substantial uncertainty about institutional direction
- ›Contract volume and pricing consistency across Kalshi and Polymarket suggest modest confidence rather than high conviction in either direction
- ›Iowa's current 41% probability implies roughly 3-in-7 odds, consistent with it being a leading but not dominant candidate among potential first-state slots
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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