What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally
Drill Baby Drill is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 53¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally.
Price history
50¢ current
+29¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump says Drill Baby Drill as part of Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Drill Baby Drill
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 94¢
Range
3¢-94¢
Family volume
$33K
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-DRIL
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
52¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$883
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Family volume
$33K
Orderbook snapshot
52 / 53¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump says Drill Baby Drill as part of Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-DRIL
Event family
What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$33K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 94¢
Current share
3%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-OIL
Stock Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-STOC
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-HOTT
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-DUMB
World Cup
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-WORL
Transgender
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-TRAN
Sleepy Joe
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-SLEE
America First
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-AMER
Ballroom
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BALL
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BARA
Mental Institution
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-MENT
Drill Baby Drill
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-DRIL
Terminate / Terminated
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-TERM
Gulf of America
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-GULF
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-CRYP
Event does not qualify
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-NQE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.