Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027?
This contract is priced at 28¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 13¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 31¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
6
Family volume
$12K
Best sibling
20 Gwei 43¢
Ticker
0xa6a9daa0…d16e
Price history
28¢ current
−7¢Orderbook snapshot
13 / 44¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xa6a9daa0…d16e
Event family
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
15 Gwei 53¢
Current share
6%
5 Gwei
polymarket · 0xa6a9daa0a7576efdf9edef5095c120059c80f0ddf6a5af75e0b000a646e0d16e
20 Gwei
polymarket · 0x85d9eadb263a3688205737d1c624458de2f9ef2cc5c1cfbb765babad6bfdcacc
40 Gwei
polymarket · 0xb5d84b0d831b64feb65dbd8f8b6ff92ac739cfdd13676770d2b13087f1a0d386
25 Gwei
polymarket · 0x9ea0030337e6416cfbd5e9a52ffb4c80575953b45a52bc513f2d7ecbe299d5f2
15 Gwei
polymarket · 0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063
10 Gwei
polymarket · 0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 28% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.