When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $680 open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $680 open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread. The astronomical 9224% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction, and the sharp 4¢ move over seven days suggests price discovery is still occurring in a thin market. With 75 days to expiry and a moderate 19 cliff risk index, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this 5% probability estimate given the minimal liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-26JUL01 yes 100