What is the current probability for "When will Anduril IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 1, 2027. 344 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Anduril IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1660.9% and 6.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Anduril IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Anduril IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 6/14¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $1,225.97·Closes Apr 1, 2027·344d remaining

KXIPOANDURIL-27APR01

7-day price13 snapshots · 2 regime

14¢6¢ current

Apr 96¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 940.9% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of thin markets pricing in substantial uncertainty—while the recent price decline from 12¢ to 10¢ over seven days suggests weakening conviction among holders. With 349 days to expiration and only $1,226 in open interest, this appears to be a speculative niche contract rather than an efficient price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

If Anduril confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1660.9%

IY (No) 6.8%

Adj IY 830%

CRI 16

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1660.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	830%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:16:34 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-27APR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →