When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely low 7% probability of an Anduril IPO by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers a spectacular 4,553% implied yield—a classic sign of illiquid, low-conviction pricing with just $2,461 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 7% probability of an Anduril IPO by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers a spectacular 4,553% implied yield—a classic sign of illiquid, low-conviction pricing with just $2,461 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 10¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 7¢ price, and the sharp 5¢ decline over seven days suggests recent bearish sentiment shift, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional conviction. With 259 days to expiry and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, this market appears to be pricing in structural skepticism about near-term IPO timing rather than fundamental barriers.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-27JAN01 yes 100