When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 16% probability of an Anduril IPO by February 2027, yet the Yes contract offers an extreme 922% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to fundamental expectations or heavy skew toward the No side.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 16% probability of an Anduril IPO by February 2027, yet the Yes contract offers an extreme 922% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to fundamental expectations or heavy skew toward the No side. The 7-day decline from 16¢ to 12¢ combined with a realized volatility of 1,919% and vol ratio of 5.03 indicates extreme price instability, while the modest $3,160.7 daily volume and 4¢ spread on $6,038 open interest reveal thin liquidity that may amplify moves. The high cliff risk index of 7 and 290-day time horizon suggest this contract is vulnerable to sharp repricing around funding announcements or valuation milestones for the defense tech company.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-27FEB01 yes 100