What is the current probability for "When will Anduril IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2027. 405 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Anduril IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 510.3% and 15.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Anduril IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Anduril IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 21% probability of an Anduril IPO by June 2027, but the asymmetric implied yields (469.5% for Yes vs.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 15/20¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $1·OI $18,883.06·Closes Jun 1, 2027·405d remaining

KXIPOANDURIL-27JUN01

7-day price62 snapshots · 22 regime

22¢15¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 20

Analysis

2d ago

The market is pricing a 21% probability of an Anduril IPO by June 2027, but the asymmetric implied yields (469.5% for Yes vs. 17.0% for No) suggest significant tail risk skew favoring a bullish outcome. With only $18.8K open interest against a 5¢ spread on Kalshi, liquidity is thin relative to the extreme yield differential, indicating potential mispricing or genuine uncertainty about the defense contractor's IPO timeline. The recent price movement from 13¢ to 16¢ over seven days shows upward momentum, though the 408-day timeframe and neutral regime score suggest the market remains genuinely uncertain rather than trending decisively.

Resolution rules

If Anduril confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 510.3%

IY (No) 15.9%

Adj IY 255%

CRI 6

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	510.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	255%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:17 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-27JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →