When will AppsFlyer IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 9¢ spread and only $24 open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 9¢ spread and only $24 open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction. The implied yield of 7059% on the Yes side is mathematically inflated by the tiny position size and near-zero volume over 24 hours, making it unreliable for serious analysis. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with high cliff risk (32) indicates uncertainty about AppsFlyer's IPO timeline, though with 167 days remaining and no recent news catalyst, the low probability appears reasonable absent new developments.
Resolution rules
If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26OCT01 yes 100