What is the current probability for "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2027. 374 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 308.8% and 30.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will AppsFlyer IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 379-day timeframe, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable.

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33¢

Bid/Ask 24/33¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $12.94·OI $0·Closes May 1, 2027·374d remaining

KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27MAY01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 379-day timeframe, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields (304.8% for Yes vs. 30.4% for No) suggest significant mispricing or reflect genuine uncertainty about AppsFlyer's IPO timeline, though the lack of trading activity prevents confidence in either interpretation. With a 9¢ spread and flat 7-day price action, this appears to be a dead market awaiting a catalyst or initial liquidity injection.

Resolution rules

If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 308.8%

IY (No) 30.8%

Adj IY 97%

CRI 3

Overround 0.6%

LAS 0.38

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	308.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	30.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	97%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.38	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:19:07 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →