When will AppsFlyer IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows an extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a 6458% implied return versus just 36.6% for No, reflecting the massive gap between the 7¢ price and $1 par value.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows an extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes contracts offering a 6458% implied return versus just 36.6% for No, reflecting the massive gap between the 7¢ price and $1 par value. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $28 open interest suggest this is essentially illiquid and potentially mispriced, as the 7% probability appears divorced from AppsFlyer's actual IPO likelihood given the company's maturity and market conditions. With 75 days to expiry and a wide 7¢ bid-ask spread, this market lacks sufficient depth for meaningful position-taking despite the theoretically attractive odds.
Resolution rules
If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26JUL01 yes 100