When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The 313.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing if a BLA submission is genuinely likely before November 2026, though this could reflect genuine uncertainty around Beam's clinical development timeline for this gene therapy candidate. With nearly 200 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, there's adequate time for material developments, but the complete absence of trading activity indicates minimal market conviction either way.
Resolution rules
If Beam Therapeutics Inc. submits a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPBEAM-RIST-26NOV01 yes 100