When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $898 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $898 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 56¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true probability. The 323% realized volatility and 2.51 vol ratio suggest sharp recent swings—notably a 5¢ move from 47¢ to 52¢ over seven days—despite the information arrival rate of only 2.4/hour, indicating outsized moves relative to news flow. With 198 days to expiry and asymmetric yields favoring the "No" side (199.5% vs 170%), combined with a 10¢ spread and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position in a thinly-traded biotech milestone bet rather than a liquid consensus market.
Resolution rules
If Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submits a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26NOV01 yes 100