Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2028. This Chicago-specific contract is trading at a significant discount to broader convention host probabilities, with the 29¢ price implying roughly a 1-in-3.4 chance despite Chicago being a traditional Democratic stronghold and major convention venue.
Analysis
This Chicago-specific contract is trading at a significant discount to broader convention host probabilities, with the 29¢ price implying roughly a 1-in-3.4 chance despite Chicago being a traditional Democratic stronghold and major convention venue. The 144.9% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated, though tempered by thin liquidity ($1,633 open interest, $79 daily volume) and a wide 8¢ spread that suggests pricing uncertainty. With 844 days to resolution, the market has ample time for fundamentals to shift, though the recent 3¢ upward movement (20¢ to 23¢ over 7 days) hints at modest accumulation of conviction among the sparse trader base.
Resolution rules
If Chicago hosts the 2028 Democratic national convention, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDNC28HOST-28-CHI yes 100