Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2028. This contract on Denver hosting the 2028 Democratic convention shows extremely thin liquidity with only $1,229 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 7¢ spread unreliable for meaningful price discovery.
Analysis
This contract on Denver hosting the 2028 Democratic convention shows extremely thin liquidity with only $1,229 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 7¢ spread unreliable for meaningful price discovery. The 211.2% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the low price and illiquidity rather than reflecting genuine market conviction, while the 106% risk-adjusted yield suggests the market hasn't efficiently priced this event nearly four years out. With 844 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market lacks the volume needed for confident position-taking, though the modest 1¢ price movement over seven days indicates minimal recent trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Denver hosts the 2028 Democratic national convention, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDNC28HOST-28-DEN yes 100