Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2028. This Philadelphia-specific contract shows extreme yield asymmetry (245% on Yes vs 7.6% on No) despite modest open interest of $1,085 and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This Philadelphia-specific contract shows extreme yield asymmetry (245% on Yes vs 7.6% on No) despite modest open interest of $1,085 and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 20¢ price, and the risk-adjusted yield of 123% indicates significant uncertainty about whether this specific venue will be selected. With 844 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this market has time for new information but faces moderate event concentration risk as the convention date approaches.
Resolution rules
If Philadelphia hosts the 2028 Democratic national convention, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDNC28HOST-28-PHL yes 100