SimpleFunctions

Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026

Craig Albernaz is priced at 28¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 49¢ ask, 43¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026.

Price history

28¢ current

+22¢
0¢25¢
Apr 26, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If the Manager of the Baltimore Pro Baseball team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Craig Albernaz

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Carlos Mendoza 57¢

Range

2¢-57¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-CALB

May 27, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

28¢
Bid/ask midpoint
May 27, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

Ask

49¢

Spread

43¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026

Closes

Dec 1, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 49¢

Kalshi
43¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.8K
6¢5
5¢400
AskSize
49¢200
70¢100
79¢452
81¢30
82¢25

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Manager of the Baltimore Pro Baseball team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 1, 2026

Identifier

KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-CALB

SF Signal
SF Index
1520.04
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3040.1%

IY (No)

12.4%

Adj IY

1520%

CRI

16

Overround

2.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.568

Observability

high

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

3040.1%
12.4%
Adj IY
1520%
16
Overround
2.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.