SimpleFunctions

Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026

Terry Francona is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 21¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026.

Price history

29¢ current

+23¢
0¢25¢
Apr 27, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If the Manager of the Cincinnati Pro Baseball team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Terry Francona

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

Carlos Mendoza 63¢

Range

2¢-63¢

Family volume

$302

Identifier

KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-TFRA

May 27, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

29¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

18¢

Ask

39¢

Spread

21¢

Reported volume

$10

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026

Closes

Dec 1, 2026

Family volume

$302

Orderbook snapshot

18 / 39¢

Kalshi
21¢ spread
BidSize
18¢1
17¢5
14¢200
3¢49
2¢261
AskSize
39¢200
40¢5
65¢34
66¢26
70¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Manager of the Cincinnati Pro Baseball team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 1, 2026

Identifier

KXCOACHOUTMLB-26DEC01-TFRA

SF Signal
SF Index
887.43
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

887.4%

IY (No)

42.8%

Adj IY

887%

CRI

5

RV

1374%

VR

3.43

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

high

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

887.4%
42.8%
Adj IY
887%
5
RV
1374%
VR
3.43
IAR
0.6/h
Overround
3.2%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Cross-Venue Convergence Dynamics: Why Kalshi and Polymarket Converge — and When They Don't

Why the same outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket usually trades within 2-5 cents — and the three specific things that cause the gap to widen. Diagnostic guide and worked convergence trade.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.