Who will perform the next James Bond Song?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Who will perform the next James Bond Song?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a decade-long time horizon, with zero 24-hour volume and only $883 open interest against a 7-cent spread.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a decade-long time horizon, with zero 24-hour volume and only $883 open interest against a 7-cent spread. The 76.8% implied yield on the Yes side combined with realized volatility of 1481% and a vol ratio of 17.53 suggests highly speculative pricing disconnected from fundamental expectations, particularly given the neutral regime and modest recent price movement from 10¢ to 13¢. The 4.5 information arrivals per hour indicate active but thin trading, creating potential for significant repricing once actual Bond film production details emerge closer to the 2035 expiration.
Resolution rules
If Oasis performs the James Bond film theme, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-OAS yes 100