Who will perform at Todo Mundo no Rio 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2035
3159 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Who will perform” vs “Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will perform
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Coldplay
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-COL
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: BTS
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-BTS
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Mariah Carey
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-MAR
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lana Del Rey
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LAN
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Taylor Swift
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-TAY
Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show?: Beyoncé
KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME-26-BEY
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Oasis
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-OAS
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lorde
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LOR
Cluster 2
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026
Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026?: Leonardo DiCaprio
KXEPSTEINLIST-27JAN-LDIC
What moved the line
- May 6Leonardo DiCaprio↑14pp3→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 7BTS↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.