Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election
Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Eric Van Buren wins the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXMDSD2-26-EBUR
Oct 10, 2026, 4:43 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$10K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Eric Van Buren wins the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMDSD2-26-EBUR
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Who will win the 2026 Maryland State Senate District 2 general election 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.