Central African Republic · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Central African Republic is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
25¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Central African Republic
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
South Sudan 38¢
Range
3¢-38¢
Family volume
$260
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Jul 9, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$4
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$260
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$260
Outcomes
16
Highest price
South Sudan 38¢
Current share
0%
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 25% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.