Ethiopia · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Ethiopia is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
7¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ethiopia
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
South Sudan 38¢
Range
3¢-38¢
Family volume
$140
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI
Jul 12, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 42m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$19
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$140
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$140
Outcomes
16
Highest price
South Sudan 38¢
Current share
0%
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
The case for agentic market making on Kalshi
Why traditional market makers skip prediction markets and how thesis-informed agents with catalyst awareness will dominate Kalshi liquidity provision.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 7% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.