Rwanda · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Rwanda is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
22¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Rwanda
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
South Sudan 39¢
Range
3¢-39¢
Family volume
$576
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA
Jul 11, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$133
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$576
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda is officially reported before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$576
Outcomes
16
Highest price
South Sudan 39¢
Current share
0%
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-BUR
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RWA
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-NIGE
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ANG
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-TANZ
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-KEN
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ZAMB
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-ETHI
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-IND
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CHI
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SOM
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CANA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.