SimpleFunctions
KalshiOct 3, 2026147 days left

Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?

This contract is priced at 85¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 83¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 8¢ spread.

Implied probability

85¢
$532 volume
$442 liquidity
215% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$248

Best sibling

Mike Trout 12¢

Ticker

KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-AJUDGE99

Market snapshot

Aaron Judge in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Aaron Judge record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?. The displayed quote is 85¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $532. In the KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC.

Outcome

Aaron Judge

Family rank

#1 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

85¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Oct 3, 2026

Reported volume

$532

Family context

16 outcomes · KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40

Quote range

2¢-83¢

Family leader

Aaron Judge 83¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC · 1m ago

Venue identifier: KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-AJUDGE99. Family volume: $248.

Price history

85¢ current

+12¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 9, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

83 / 91¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
83¢10
80¢120
79¢500
77¢130
42¢1.1K
AskSize
91¢1.5K
92¢100
95¢600
99¢1.4K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Aaron Judge records 40+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 3, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBSEASONHR-26C40-AJUDGE99

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

50.7%

IY (No)

1209.0%

Adj IY

546%

CRI

5

Overround

4.3%

LAS

0.10

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

50.7%
1209.0%
Adj IY
546%
5
Overround
4.3%
LAS
0.10

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