SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Player Season Home Run Total Markets — 155 contracts, SF signal on every row.

155 live Kalshi contracts (157 audited). Median implied probability sits at 16%. 41 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBSEASONHR-26C20-EDELACRUZ44 +92c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 24.7pp · cheapest KXMLBSEASONHR-26C20-LGURRIEL12 · richest KXMLBSEASONHR-26C20-JWOOD29.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBSEASONHR.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBSEASONHR
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBSEASONHR
example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBSEASONHR",
    "label": "MLB Player Season Home Run Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 155,
    "volume24hSum": 1162.63,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00051
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+80.0
Vol Flow$1.2K-49%
min $523max $5.2K
Breadth0%-11.1pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity
warming up — first reading at 22:15 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 20:23

Live contracts

155

Median IY

16¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$1.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+92¢

KXMLBSEASONHR-26C20-EDELACRUZ44

MLB Player Season Home Run Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 18 of 155 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 97.4 6958.6%

$10$1001d7d30d90d6958.63528.097.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Player Season Home Run Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 155

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Bo Bichette record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Bo Bichette30¢
IY 855%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $214
Will Jac Caglianone record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Jac Caglianone66¢
IY 189%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $205
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Fernando Tatis Jr.
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge RVol Resid $120
Will Alec Bohm record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Alec Bohm25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge RVol Resid $118
Will Nick Kurtz record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Nick Kurtz17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge RVol Resid $117
Will Munetaka Murakami record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Munetaka Murakami
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge RVol Resid $95
Will Ben Rice record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Ben Rice77¢
IY 109%Cliff 3Edge RVol Resid $60
Will Junior Caminero record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Junior Caminero18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge RVol Resid $52
Will Mike Trout record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Mike Trout44¢
IY 466%Cliff 1Edge RVol Resid $41
Will Brandon Lowe record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Brandon Lowe35¢
IY 680%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $41
Will Hunter Goodman record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Hunter Goodman76¢
IY 116%Cliff 3Edge RVol Resid $35
Will Spencer Steer record 20+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Spencer Steer57¢
IY 276%Cliff 1Edge RVol Resid $24
Will Nick Kurtz record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Nick Kurtz69¢
IY 165%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $15
Will Junior Caminero record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Junior Caminero79¢
IY 97%Cliff 4Edge RVol Resid $10
Will Shohei Ohtani record 50+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge RVol Resid $5
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Pete Crow-Armstrong49¢
IY 381%Cliff 1Edge RVol Resid $5
Will Eugenio Suárez record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Eugenio Suárez26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge RVol Resid $4
Will Jose Ramirez record 30+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Jose Ramirez14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge RVol Resid $2
Will Cal Raleigh record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Cal Raleigh
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge RVol Resid $0
Will Eugenio Suárez record 40+ home runs during 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Eugenio Suárez11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge RVol Resid $0
155 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Player Season Home Run Total Markets

From market_changes

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 22:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBSEASONHR

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →