Any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027
520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score is priced at 81¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 78¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will any AI model have a score of at least 1.
Price history
81¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score 78¢
Range
1¢-78¢
Family volume
$7
Identifier
KXAISPIKE-27B-1520
Jun 28, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
78¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will any AI model have a score of at least 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$7
Orderbook snapshot
78 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXAISPIKE-27B-1520
Event family
Will any AI model have a score of at least 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7
Outcomes
8
Highest price
520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score 78¢
Current share
0%
520 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1520 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27B-1520
530 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1530 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27B-1530
540 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1540 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27B-1540
550 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1550 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27-1550
600 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1600 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27-1600
650 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1650 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27-1650
700 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1700 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27-1700
750 before Jan 1, 2027: At least 1750 score
kalshi · KXAISPIKE-27-1750
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.