Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 31% probability of an AI model reaching a 1600 LMSYS score by year-end 2026, despite the Yes side offering an exceptional 344% annualized yield with 260 days to expiration.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 31% probability of an AI model reaching a 1600 LMSYS score by year-end 2026, despite the Yes side offering an exceptional 344% annualized yield with 260 days to expiration. The 7-day rally from 22¢ to 29¢ suggests recent positive sentiment, though low 24-hour volume of $21.5 and modest open interest of $6,038 indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information arrives. The 235% realized volatility and elevated info arrival rate of 0.5/hour suggest this market is pricing in genuine uncertainty around AI capability benchmarks, making the asymmetric payoff potentially attractive for those bullish on near-term model improvements.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-27-1600 yes 100