Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with Yes holders facing an 863.8% annualized yield against a 22.9% yield for No, suggesting the 18¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of an AI model reaching a 1650 LMSYS score within 260 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with Yes holders facing an 863.8% annualized yield against a 22.9% yield for No, suggesting the 18¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of an AI model reaching a 1650 LMSYS score within 260 days. The thin liquidity ($1,902 open interest, $47.28 daily volume) and wide 4¢ spread indicate low conviction and potential mispricing, particularly given that leading models like Claude 3.5 Sonnet and GPT-4o are already in the 1600+ range on various benchmarks. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action mask what appears to be a high-probability event given current AI trajectory, though the 6 cliff risk index warns of potential binary resolution dynamics.
Resolution rules
If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAISPIKE-27-1650 yes 100