Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 68¢ (68% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 77.6% and 267.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	77.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	267.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	251%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	300%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.09	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	13.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

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