Bitcoin above $85,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
By Sep 4, 2026 is priced at 90¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 79¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside Will Bitcoin be above $85,000.
Price history
90¢ current
+79¢Contract brief
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
By Sep 4, 2026
Rank
#4 of 10
Leader
By Nov 13, 2026 22¢
Range
2¢-22¢
Family volume
$230
Identifier
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26SEP04
Aug 26, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
79¢
24h volume
$50
Family rank
#4 of 10
10 outcomes · Will Bitcoin be above $85,000
Closes
Sep 5, 2026
Family volume
$230
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 5, 2026
Identifier
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26SEP04
Event family
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$230
Outcomes
10
Highest price
By Nov 13, 2026 22¢
Current share
22%
By Nov 13, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26NOV13
By Oct 2, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26OCT02
By Feb 5, 2027
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-27FEB05
By Sep 4, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26SEP04
By Sep 11, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26SEP11
By Oct 16, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26OCT16
By Dec 11, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26DEC11
By Sep 18, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26SEP18
By May 14, 2027
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-27MAY14
By Aug 28, 2026
kalshi · KXBTCPRICE-85000-26AUG28
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.