Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Leader sits at 88% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
By Feb 5, 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
By Nov 13, 2026
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$515
thin orderbook
Closes
May 15, 2027
232 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: By Oct 16, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26OCT16
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: By Oct 2, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26OCT02
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Dec 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: By Dec 11, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26DEC11
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Nov 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?: By Nov 13, 2026
KXBTCPRICE-85000-26NOV13
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by May 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET?: By May 14, 2027
KXBTCPRICE-85000-27MAY14
Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Feb 5, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET?: By Feb 5, 2027
KXBTCPRICE-85000-27FEB05
Analysis
This market is pricing an 22% chance that Bitcoin closes above $85,000 by October 2, 2026—roughly 37 days away. The relatively low probability reflects Bitcoin's need to appreciate significantly from current levels within a compressed timeframe. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy signals, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. The term structure across these contracts shows progressively higher probabilities for later dates (22% by Nov 13 vs. 8% by Aug 28), suggesting markets expect either a gradual recovery or sustained sideways price action rather than immediate upward momentum. The critical near-term catalyst is early September, where another $85K contract trades at 11%, indicating a narrowing window for rapid appreciation. Sustained rallies, positive regulatory developments, or shifts in inflation expectations could shift probabilities materially, while macroeconomic deterioration or geopolitical uncertainty could further compress them.
- ›Bitcoin's current price relative to $85,000 and historical volatility over 37-day periods
- ›Term structure showing 22% probability by Nov 13 vs. 8% by Aug 28 suggests markets expect gradual rather than immediate price appreciation
- ›Early September contract (Sep 4) trading at 11% indicates market expects most upside movement to occur in latter half of September
- ›Federal Reserve meeting schedule and inflation data releases between August 26 and October 2 as primary macro catalysts
- ›Trading volume concentration ($62 24h vol on Sep 4 contract) indicates modest liquidity for near-term outcomes versus later-dated contracts
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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