Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026 is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Outcome
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$964K
Identifier
0xa7b594ae...1cda
Jun 19, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$964K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xa7b594ae…1cda
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$964K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026 4¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.