Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division?

23¢

Bid/Ask 20/22¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $182.42·OI $18,921.88·Closes Jan 25, 2027·281d remaining

KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-CAR

7-day price151 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Carolina's probability has declined 17% over the past week (24¢ to 19¢ on Polymarket, now 23¢ on Kalshi), suggesting deteriorating sentiment around the team's divisional prospects. The 4¢ cross-venue gap favors Kalshi's yes side, presenting a potential arbitrage opportunity, though the thin 24h volume of $182.42 raises execution risk. The extreme 553% implied yield on yes reflects the long 281-day timeframe and low base probability, but the cliff risk index of 4 warrants caution given potential mid-season roster changes or injuries that could dramatically shift divisional odds.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 498.6%Close-time delta 519h

Resolution rules

If Carolina wins the Pro Football NFC South Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 519.3%

IY (No) 32.5%

Adj IY 221%

CRI 4

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.15

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	519.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	221%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.15	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:14:31 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:33 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-CAR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →