Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$480
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta win the Pro Football NFC South Division
Will Atlanta win the Pro Football NFC South Division?: Atlanta
KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-ATL
Cluster 2
Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division
Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division?: Carolina
KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-CAR
Cluster 3
Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division
Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division?: New Orleans
KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-NO
Cluster 4
Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC South Division
Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC South Division?: Tampa Bay
KXNFLNFCSOUTH-27-TB
Analysis
This probability reflects a 25% chance that the New Orleans Saints will win the 2026 NFC South division title. The Saints' divisional outlook depends primarily on roster strength relative to division rivals (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and injury health throughout the season. A weak offense or defensive injuries could lower their odds, while successful draft picks and free-agent signings could raise them. The division winner will be determined at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in early January 2027, when final standings are set based on head-to-head records against divisional opponents. Performance in preseason games and early regular-season matchups against NFC South rivals will provide concrete data on competitive positioning before mid-season playoff implications clarify.
- ›Roster composition and offensive line health entering the 2026 season compared to divisional competitors
- ›Win-loss record in head-to-head divisional matchups, which determine tiebreakers and direct playoff seeding implications
- ›Quarterback performance consistency, particularly in critical division games during weeks 13-18 of the regular season
- ›Defense ranking among NFC South teams through Week 9, correlating with playoff contention odds
- ›Key injury developments to star offensive or defensive players before training camp concludes in August 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 22Atlanta↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Atlanta↑4pp21→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Carolina↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Carolina↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22New Orleans↓3pp31→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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