SimpleFunctions
4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 213d

Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

26%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

26%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$480

4 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

213 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 23% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 23% on 2026-06-25
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Atlanta win the Pro Football NFC South Division

1 contract$422

Cluster 2

Will Carolina win the Pro Football NFC South Division

1 contract$40

Cluster 3

Will New Orleans win the Pro Football NFC South Division

1 contract$17

Cluster 4

Will Tampa Bay win the Pro Football NFC South Division

1 contract$1

Analysis

This probability reflects a 25% chance that the New Orleans Saints will win the 2026 NFC South division title. The Saints' divisional outlook depends primarily on roster strength relative to division rivals (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and injury health throughout the season. A weak offense or defensive injuries could lower their odds, while successful draft picks and free-agent signings could raise them. The division winner will be determined at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in early January 2027, when final standings are set based on head-to-head records against divisional opponents. Performance in preseason games and early regular-season matchups against NFC South rivals will provide concrete data on competitive positioning before mid-season playoff implications clarify.

  • Roster composition and offensive line health entering the 2026 season compared to divisional competitors
  • Win-loss record in head-to-head divisional matchups, which determine tiebreakers and direct playoff seeding implications
  • Quarterback performance consistency, particularly in critical division games during weeks 13-18 of the regular season
  • Defense ranking among NFC South teams through Week 9, correlating with playoff contention odds
  • Key injury developments to star offensive or defensive players before training camp concludes in August 2026

What moved the line

  • Jun 22Atlanta5pp2520¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 20Atlanta4pp2125¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 20Carolina4pp2016¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22Carolina4pp1721¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22New Orleans3pp3128¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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