SimpleFunctions

CAVA Group Inc. report above 479 cava restaurants in Q2 2026

Above 479 is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 69¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will CAVA Group Inc. report.

Price history

61¢ current

+49¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jun 10, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If CAVA Group Inc. reports above 479 cava restaurants in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 479

Rank

#7 of 8

Leader

Above 470 92¢

Range

1¢-92¢

Family volume

$940

Identifier

KXCAVA-26AUGREST-479

Jun 23, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 23m ago

Implied probability

61¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 23m ago

Bid

Ask

74¢

Spread

69¢

Reported volume

$11

Family rank

#7 of 8

8 outcomes · Will CAVA Group Inc. report

Closes

Sep 10, 2026

Family volume

$940

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 74¢

Kalshi
69¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.1K
5¢5
4¢1.0K
2¢52
AskSize
74¢10
75¢500
95¢1.0K
98¢1.6K
99¢51

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If CAVA Group Inc. reports above 479 cava restaurants in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 10, 2026

Identifier

KXCAVA-26AUGREST-479

SF Signal
SF Index
4381.48
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

8763.0%

IY (No)

24.3%

Adj IY

4381%

CRI

19

Overround

1.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

8763.0%
24.3%
Adj IY
4381%
19
Overround
1.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.