Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
KXSENATENHD-26-CPAP · closes Nov 3, 2026 · 202 days remaining
Price
Last
90¢
Bid
90¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$794
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Chris Pappas · match confidence 0.56 · close-time delta 1359h
Counterpart price
89¢
This price
90¢
Spread (this − cp)
1¢
Counterpart IY
30.9%
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 20.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1622.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 9 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.04 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 775% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
0 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 3:58:21 AM
About this market
If Chris Pappas wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Hampshire Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXSENATENHD-26-CPAP yes 100