Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Karishma Manzur
KXSENATENHD-26-KMAN
Cluster 2
Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Annie Kuster
KXSENATENHD-26-AKUS
Cluster 3
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Chris Pappas
KXSENATENHD-26-CPAP
Cluster 4
Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Maggie Goodlander
KXSENATENHD-26-MGOO
Cluster 5
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Stefany Shaheen
KXSENATENHD-26-SSHA
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Karishma Manzur will secure the Democratic Party's Senate nomination in New Hampshire's 2026 general election. At 22%, this suggests market participants view her as a credible but not favored candidate in the state's Democratic primary. The probability is primarily driven by assessments of her name recognition, organizational support, and fundraising capacity relative to other potential Democratic candidates in New Hampshire. The key catalyst that will resolve much of this uncertainty is the official filing deadline for primary candidates and early primary performance, which will clarify voter preference and establishment backing. Changes to this probability would likely follow major endorsement announcements, significant fundraising reports, or shifts in perceived candidate viability based on polling data closer to the primary election.
- ›Manzur's campaign infrastructure and fundraising totals relative to competing Democratic primary candidates in New Hampshire
- ›Public endorsements from state Democratic officials, labor unions, and other influential party organizations
- ›Polling data showing her name recognition and support levels among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters
- ›Entry or withdrawal of other significant Democratic candidates that would directly affect the competitive field
- ›Media coverage and earned attention indicating momentum or decline in her candidacy ahead of the primary vote
What moved the line
- Jun 20Karishma Manzur↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Karishma Manzur↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Karishma Manzur↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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