Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
69 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?: Chris Pappas
KXSENATENHD-26-CPAP
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Karishma Manzur will secure the Democratic Party's Senate nomination in New Hampshire's 2026 general election. At 22%, this suggests market participants view her as a credible but not favored candidate in the state's Democratic primary. The probability is primarily driven by assessments of her name recognition, organizational support, and fundraising capacity relative to other potential Democratic candidates in New Hampshire. The key catalyst that will resolve much of this uncertainty is the official filing deadline for primary candidates and early primary performance, which will clarify voter preference and establishment backing. Changes to this probability would likely follow major endorsement announcements, significant fundraising reports, or shifts in perceived candidate viability based on polling data closer to the primary election.
- ›Manzur's campaign infrastructure and fundraising totals relative to competing Democratic primary candidates in New Hampshire
- ›Public endorsements from state Democratic officials, labor unions, and other influential party organizations
- ›Polling data showing her name recognition and support levels among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters
- ›Entry or withdrawal of other significant Democratic candidates that would directly affect the competitive field
- ›Media coverage and earned attention indicating momentum or decline in her candidacy ahead of the primary vote
What moved the line
- Aug 25Chris Pappas↑3pp94→97¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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