Before Sep 1, 2026 · Will Cory Mills
Before Sep 1, 2026 is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will Cory Mills.
Price history
10¢ current
−16¢Contract brief
If Cory Mills leaves the House before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Sep 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Before Nov 3, 2026 24¢
Range
8¢-24¢
Family volume
$221
Identifier
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01
Aug 6, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 58m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$188
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Cory Mills
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$221
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Cory Mills leaves the House before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26SEP01
Event family
Will Cory Mills.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$221
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Nov 3, 2026 24¢
Current share
85%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.