David Harbour · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14
David Harbour is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 12 inside KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14.
Price history
35¢ current
+29¢Contract brief
If David Harbour has won Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
David Harbour
Rank
#2 of 12
Leader
Charles Melton 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-DAV
Jun 21, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
#2 of 12
12 outcomes · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If David Harbour has won Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Identifier
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-DAV
Event family
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Charles Melton 37¢
Current share
10%
Charles Melton
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-CHA
David Harbour
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-DAV
Richard Gadd
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-RICH
Tie
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-TIE
Alessandro Nivola
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-ALE
Jake Lacy
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-JAK
Jonathan Banks
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-JON
Nick Offerman
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-NIC
Richard Jenkins
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-RIC
Tom Hollander
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-TOM
Troy Kotsur
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-TRO
Jamie Bell
kalshi · KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-JAM
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 35% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.