Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards is priced at 72¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 71¢ bid, 72¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
72¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If David Harbour has won Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-DAV
Sep 3, 2026, 12:47 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
71¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
71 / 72¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If David Harbour has won Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Identifier
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-DAV
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards 72¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
cultural
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 72% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.