Democratic party · KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN
Democratic party is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN.
Price history
95¢ current
+45¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party wins white college-educated men in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 67¢
Range
14¢-67¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN-DEM
Sep 23, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
80¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$201
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
80 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party wins white college-educated men in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
Identifier
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN-DEM
Event family
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 67¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.