Republican party · KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN
Republican party is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN.
Price history
15¢ current
Contract brief
If the Republican Party wins white college-educated men in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 67¢
Range
14¢-67¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN-REP
Sep 23, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$100
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party wins white college-educated men in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 6, 2026
Identifier
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN-REP
Event family
KXEXITPOLL-WCOLMEN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 67¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.