Will Donald Trump meet in person Mohammed bin Salman before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Donald Trump meet in person Mohammed bin Salman before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 82% probability of a Trump-MBS in-person meeting before year-end 2026, with the price rising 5 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in such an encounter.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 82% probability of a Trump-MBS in-person meeting before year-end 2026, with the price rising 5 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in such an encounter. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (33% for Yes vs. 599% for No) indicate the No side is severely underpriced relative to its risk, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity for contrarian bettors willing to bet against the meeting. With only $10 in 24-hour volume against $2,187 open interest and a 73% realized volatility, liquidity is thin and the market appears to be pricing in high uncertainty despite the bullish headline probability, warranting caution on position sizing.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NMBS yes 100