What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 811.8% and 25.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 16¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in a Trump North Korea visit within 26 months, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 797% annualized yield that suggests either genuine skepticism or significant tail-risk premium.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 15/16¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $112·OI $6,415.33·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-NK

7-day price8 snapshots · 2 regime

16¢15¢ current

Apr 913¢Apr 17

Analysis

4d ago

The 16¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in a Trump North Korea visit within 26 months, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 797% annualized yield that suggests either genuine skepticism or significant tail-risk premium. Volume is anemic at just $32 in 24 hours against $6.2k open interest, indicating thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges. The modest 1¢ price uptick over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently stable, though the 6 Cliff Risk Index warrants monitoring given the binary nature of diplomatic breakthroughs.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of North Korea after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 811.8%

IY (No) 25.3%

Adj IY 406%

CRI 6

Overround 6.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	811.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	25.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	406%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:19:25 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-NK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →