Will Donald Trump visit Denmark (incl. Greenland) before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Donald Trump visit Denmark (incl. Greenland) before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 11-cent price reflects a low baseline probability, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 1031% on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or extreme risk premium for a binary event with 260 days to resolve.
Analysis
The 11-cent price reflects a low baseline probability, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 1031% on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or extreme risk premium for a binary event with 260 days to resolve. The massive realized volatility of 1316% and high cliff risk index indicate this market experiences dramatic swings, likely driven by Trump's unpredictable travel announcements and the Greenland acquisition rhetoric that surfaced in late 2024. With only $6 in 24-hour volume against $3,596 open interest and a 6-cent spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for larger position sizing.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Denmark (incl. Greenland) after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-DEN yes 100