SimpleFunctions

Venezuela · Will Donald Trump visit

Venezuela is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside Will Donald Trump visit.

Price history

9¢ current

2¢
5¢10¢15¢
Jun 25, 2026Jul 19, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Venezuela

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Germany 38¢

Range

3¢-38¢

Family volume

$933

Identifier

KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-VEN

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

9¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$29K

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Donald Trump visit

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$933

Orderbook snapshot

8 / 9¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
8¢250
8¢1
5¢1.0K
5¢278
5¢452
AskSize
9¢250
9¢26
9¢5
11¢266
12¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Venezuela after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-VEN

SF Signal
SF Index
1294.08
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2588.2%

IY (No)

19.6%

Adj IY

1294%

CRI

12

Overround

1.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

2588.2%
19.6%
Adj IY
1294%
12
Overround
1.5%

SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.