Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the c.... This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $176 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 34¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $176 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 34¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 424.4% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine market conviction, while the 8¢ spread is substantial relative to the price. With 258 days to resolution and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient trading activity to confidently assess whether Drake's #2 ranking probability is genuinely underpriced or simply neglected.
Resolution rules
If Drake is the #2 most streamed Artist on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUPUSA-26-DRA yes 100