Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
99 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will taylor swift be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will bad bunny be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will drake be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will morgan wallen be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will the weeknd be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will bruno mars be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Morgan Wallen finishes as the second-most streamed artist on Spotify's 2026 U.S. year-end chart when it releases in November or December 2026. The 20% probability reflects Morgan Wallen's strong streaming performance in country music but faces competition from established global acts. Taylor Swift currently has the highest implied probability at 34%, suggesting market participants expect either her or another mega-artist to occupy the #2 slot. Morgan Wallen's position depends on his release schedule, touring activity, and overall streaming momentum through year-end, while broader trends in music consumption and competing artists' catalog performance will also matter. The uncertainty resolves when Spotify officially releases its 2026 Wrapped data, typically in late November.
- ›Morgan Wallen's streaming volume in 2026 year-to-date compared to historical monthly averages and the pace needed to maintain top-2 positioning
- ›Release of new music by Morgan Wallen and competing artists (Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Drake) between September-December 2026 and their streaming impact
- ›Spotify's methodology for calculating yearly streaming totals and whether catalog plays, re-listens, or new releases drive the final ranking
- ›Historical year-over-year volatility in Spotify Wrapped #2 positioning and how often the same artist repeats in that slot
- ›The total streaming volume distribution across top artists in 2026; whether a clear tier-2 emerges or if multiple artists cluster closely
What moved the line
- Sep 17Taylor Swift↑11pp42→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Taylor Swift↓7pp53→46¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Weeknd↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18The Weeknd↓6pp7→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19The Weeknd↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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