Will Morgan Wallen be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will bad bunny be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will drake be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will morgan wallen be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will taylor swift be the #2 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This contract resolves based on Morgan Wallen's final streaming rank on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped year-end chart for U.S. artists, releasing in early November 2026. The 21% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Wallen will specifically finish in the #2 position among top-streamed U.S. artists this year. Key drivers include Wallen's streaming velocity relative to Drake, Taylor Swift, and other major artists throughout 2026, the release of new music that could accelerate or stall his trajectory, and competitive dynamics as other artists release projects. The outcome depends entirely on aggregate streaming data compiled by Spotify over January-October 2026, with no external influence possible once that period closes. The contract resolves when Spotify officially publishes the 2026 Wrapped data in early November.
- ›Morgan Wallen's current streaming position relative to Drake (priced at 71¢ for #1 U.S.) and Taylor Swift (19¢ for #1 U.S.) as of May 2026
- ›Whether Wallen releases new material during 2026 and its streaming performance compared to concurrent releases by Swift, Drake, and other competitors
- ›Historical seasonal streaming patterns and the impact of summer and fall 2026 release schedules on relative artist positioning
- ›Wallen's recent chart performance and whether his May-October 2026 monthly streams maintain, grow, or decline versus his year-to-date rate
- ›Spotify's methodology for calculating annual rankings and whether changes to how streams are weighted could affect final positioning
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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