SimpleFunctions

Estonia · KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27

Estonia is priced at 96¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 92¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27.

Price history

96¢ current

+4¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Aug 18, 2026Sep 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Estonia has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Estonia

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Estonia 91¢

Range

24¢-91¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-EST

Sep 17, 2026, 5:39 AM UTC · 28m ago

Implied probability

96¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Sep 17, 2026, 5:39 AM UTC · 28m ago

Bid

92¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27

Closes

May 31, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

92 / 99¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
92¢5
91¢200
52¢268
11¢49
2¢105
AskSize
99¢350

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Estonia has performed as an official entry in the Eurovision Song Contest 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 31, 2027

Identifier

KXEUROVISIONPARTICIPANTS-27-EST

SF Signal
SF Index
721.01
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

14.1%

IY (No)

1442.0%

Adj IY

721%

CRI

10

Overround

24.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

14.1%
1442.0%
Adj IY
721%
10
Overround
24.4%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Blogtech

MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket

Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.

Blogmacro

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Bloginsights

SimpleFunctions vs Oddpool vs Raw Kalshi API — Which Prediction Market Tool Should You Use?

Compare SimpleFunctions, Oddpool, and raw Kalshi/Polymarket APIs for prediction market trading. Honest breakdown of features, pricing, and when to use each tool.

Blogmarkets

How to Actually Make Money on Kalshi (Not the Advice You'll Find on Reddit)

A practical, data-driven guide to making money on Kalshi prediction markets. Screening, sizing, orderbook analysis, regime detection, and the strategies that actually work.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.